The pre-Spurs message: “We must be better!”

If the rumours are to be believed, it’s been another farcical week at AVFC. Matthew Lowton exchanged some unsavoury views with the fans (or perhaps his wife) after Monday’s defeat to QPR, whilst Paul Lambert exchanged some unsavoury views with the players. Things got so heated that he had to be held back by Roy Keane, who will apparently try to get as far away from the mess at Villa by heading to the Jungle alongside his fellow ‘celebrities’. Allegedly of course.

The public message since Monday’s defeat has been uniform in all statements made by players and management alike. In his post-match press conference, Lambert stated that “we had to be more clinical in the final third of the pitch.” Captain Ron Vlaar reiterated this, saying “Results give confidence and that’s what we have to do”, whilst Tom Cleverley’s interview included the sound bite “we’re paid to turn that around to make sure the goals and wins come again.” Finally, Lambert started his pre-match build up to this weekend’s game against Spurs by reflecting on Monday’s performance: ” it’s up to us to go and pick it up again on Sunday.”

The message seems to have been clearly delivered and taken on board: we must be better!

Easier said than done.

After a strong start to the season, Villa unfortunately have gone back to their ‘leaky-as-a-sieve’ persona that they have developed so successfully over the last two seasons. Suprisingly, the injuries to Baker and (more significantly) Senderos have destabilised the ‘rock solid’ image that started to form after four games and three clean sheets. Now Villa look like conceding anytime an opposing attack threatens itself, and the return of Roncrete to that defence doesn’t seem to have done the trick. Vlaar’s reaction after Charlie Austin’s second goal on Monday said it all: head in hands, frustrated yet upset, the fear of conceding realised again.

Yet understandably, the biggest concern for Villa fans at the moment is their attack. No goals in five games, and another unwanted record on the agenda if they fail for a sixth-consecutive time. Some people will point to the fact that Christian Benteke, easily Villa’s biggest goal-scoring threat over the past two seasons, is far from peak fitness and that the goals will come soon. Yet at the moment, Benteke is hindering the team. It’s a Catch 22 for Villa: if he doesn’t play, it’ll take him longer to get fit; yet his current performances are part of the reason why Villa failed to score in their last two games. His touch is poor, his distribution wayward, and his desire to come deeper to collect the ball is not matched by his fitness to then get forward and attack.

This isn’t Villa’s biggest problem in attack though. Ultimately, they don’t look like they’ve been told how to attack.

Take Monday’s game against QPR. Ignore for a moment the fact that Tom Cleverley, a central midfielder by trade and Villa’s only bright spark the week before against Everton, was forced out to the unfamiliar left wing to accommodate a 4-4-2 formation. The key problem was in the approach of the front two: Benteke and Agbonlahor. On paper, this looked like a smart move from Paul Lambert. After QPR’s calamitous 3-2 defeat against Liverpool, Villa’s front two were up against a shaky defence in own-goal specialist Richard Dunne and his new understudy for the role Steven Caulker. Benteke had the potential to outmuscle either, whilst Agbonlahor’s speed behind the defence would undoubtedly cause problems.

Yet neither player really tested. Benteke repeatedly came short instead of teasing flick-ons, and Agbonlahor not once got in behind QPR’s back line. Perhaps you might call this astute tactics from Harry Redknapp, playing a deep defensive line to ensure everything was in front of QPR. Yet Villa rarely played a long ball to Benteke on the opposing 18-yard line, such as the one that allowed Austin to open the scoring.

Lambert’s tactics were one-dimensional, a simple Plan A that failed to work: (1)pass the ball sideways across midfield and defence; (2) full backs try to run forward; (3) give to Benteke and Agbonlahor 30 yards from goal, who lose it; and finally (4) give to Ciaran Clark to hoof it to opposing goalkeeper Rob Green.

Lambert doesn’t seem to have told his players how they are going to go about scoring a goal. Under Martin O’Neill, it was clear; launch it to Heskey or Carew, out wide to the winger, whip balls into the box. Simple, maybe not always attractive, but mostly effective. Lambert however is putting players onto the pitch, expecting them to keep the ball and hoping that things happen. Even his rhetoric suggests this is the case: after the QPR game, he said “When Christian Benteke gets up to speed and with Gabby Agbonlahor and Andi Weimann and Charles N’Zogbia and Darren Bent, there are guys there with goals in them. I think that will happen.”

I THINK THAT WILL HAPPEN!

So maybe the message is that we must be better – but the question still remains: how will it happen?

How do you solve a problem like the Villa?

For me, the short answer is to show Paul Lambert the door.

You might be thinking that this is one of those reactionary calls for a manager’s head: that a month ago everything was going fine; that a manager shouldn’t be sacked after a minor bad run; that Aston Villa wouldn’t find anyone better. All are fair suggestions, but in the grand scheme of things at Villa, all can be disproven.

Paul Lambert certainly didn’t start the slide that Villa have been on over the last five years. Before him, Houllier and McLeish both struggled to keep Villa floating above the surface, but after a while those excuses wear thin. Eventually, you have to look at the recent history of the club under its current manager, and what he has achieved to change his team’s fortunes. Unfortunately, this is where Lambert falls short time and time again:

Worst start to a season in the club’s Premier League history (5 points out of 18 available – 2012/13)

Worst start to a season in the club’s last 43 years (6 points out of 27 available – 2012/13)

Heaviest defeat and highest losing margin (8-0 against Chelsea – 2012/13)

Most goals conceded in a Premier League season (69 – 2012/13)

Most consecutive games without a clean sheet (26 – 2012/13 into 2013/14)

Most defeats in a season (20 – 2013/14)

Most home defeats in a season (10 – 2013/14)

There are others that he has come close to breaking: joint-most home games without a goal (4); joint-most home games without a clean sheet (16); joint-lowest Premier League points total (38); and his poor start to the 2012/13 season contributed to Villa’s longest run without a win (13 games). Another (unconfirmed) stat suggests that no other top-flight side has been defeated over two legs against a team in the fourth tier – until Villa were knocked out of the League Cup by Bradford in the semi-finals two seasons ago.

So far in the 2014/15 season, Lambert has yet another statistic to add to his list of ‘achievements’ – most consecutive defeats without scoring (5) after Villa’s 2-0 defeat away at QPR. This was supposed to be the game to get Villa back on track, with Lambert suggesting that Villa have a wealth of goal-scoring talent in their squad. Now Villa find themselves 13-0 down and no points better off since their somewhat fortuitous win against Liverpool at Anfield last month.

Villa’s recent form guide makes for further grim reading. Compared to others in the league, Lambert’s side stand 20th for last-five results, 20th for goals, 20th for both shots total and shots on target, 19th for chance conversion and 19th for possession. Villa have only two registered goal scorers in Agbonlahor and Weimann: all other 91 Football League sides have at least three. Even Sunderland have a better goal difference than Villa, despite picking up two fewer points and losing 8-0 against Southampton last weekend.

These stats can be further contextualised by looking at Lambert’s record compared with his predecessors at Aston Villa. Most look at win ratios as an effective comparison: of the 27 permanent managers in Villa’s history, Lambert sits 22nd with 30.93% (30 wins from 97 games), a poor record ahead of only the infamous reigns of the likes of fellow-Scots Billy McNeil and Alex McLeish (yet less impressive than other calamitous periods such as under Dr Jozef Venglos or Graham Taylor’s second stint in charge at the club). What’s more interesting, however, is comparing losing ratios. Here Lambert places 26th of 27: of the 97 competitive games in charge of Aston Villa, 47 of them have ended in defeat, a ratio of 48.45%. Only one manager in the club’s history has lost a higher percentage of matches – Dick Taylor (71 defeats in 144 games between 1964 and 1967, a ratio of 49.31% – although his win ratio is better). At this rate, Paul Lambert will potentially go down as one of the club’s worst managers.

Further records could tumble with Villa facing Spurs this coming Sunday. Villa have never failed to score in six consecutive games, and if Spurs get their act together after their disappointing home defeat to Newcastle then this could be a real possibility. What’s clear though is that something needs to change at Villa. The club is arguably in greater danger of being relegated this season than in the last three. After a lucky start, they are sinking like a stone and are showing no signs of picking up.

A month ago, things were not fine at Villa. The results were there but the performances were poor. Villa picked up some lucky points, at times accompanied by resolute defending. The statistics demonstrate that Villa have been on a poor run since Lambert took over: nothing he has done has halted the demise of the prior two seasons, and it would be fair to suggest that things have gone from bad to worse. Managers such as Tony Pulis and David Moyes are available and known for building competitive sides if not for their style, but both would offer more than the Villa fans are currently being served up week-in-week-out. From this analysis, it is clear that the calls for Paul Lambert’s head are not reactionary: they are necessary.

Where I stand – an introduction

Over the past few years I’ve attempted to start a variety of different football-related blogs – tactics, Premier League, World Cup – and failed to maintain them, mainly due to a lack of time. This time however, I’ve decided to approach things slightly differently, by focusing on a single subject that I can guarantee fairly frequent contributions about: Aston Villa Football Club.

It would be unhealthy to count the amount of hours I spend thinking, talking about and watching the Villa, as my employers would feel short changed. So I have decided to channel these thoughts and observations into a blog, primarily as a means of venting my (frequent) dissatisfactions with my beloved Villans.

The purpose of this post is, firstly, to introduce the concept of the blog, but also to offer an insight into myself so that you know where I stand. I’m 27 years old and am a lifelong Villa fan. I regularly attended Villa Park in my younger years from the age of five, and was lucky enough to be at the Old Wembley in 1994 for our 3-1 win over Man Utd. As time passed, I became less interested in football the more I realised teenagers who play football tend to be dicks.

By the mid-2000s, my love for Villa had resurfaced and some of my good friends and I made our way back to games during Martin O’Neill’s first season (the end of Deadly Doug’s reign had done little to enthuse the majority of us). Since 2007, I have had a season ticket in the Lower Holte, and despite now living in London I make nearly every home game (weeknights excluding) and a handful of away matches too – Stoke, Chelsea and Everton already this season. I’m not a Paul Lambert fan: I was already calling for his head in October 2012 and my view hasn’t changed. I’m desperately looking forward to the day Randy sells up and we get a new manager: we’ve had some good times under Lerner but too many bad ones recently for him to continue growing our great club

Football is my one great passion. I like to believe I have a great knowledge of the beautiful game, probably more than I actually do however. I spend my games half-cheering-on-the-boys, half-analysing-the-match-as-it-plays-out. I’ve passed my Level 1 FA Coaching badge and am looking onto Level 2. Ultimately, I live and breathe football. So hopefully this may provide some insight but mainly this is for me.

This is where I stand.