How do you solve a problem like the Villa?

For me, the short answer is to show Paul Lambert the door.

You might be thinking that this is one of those reactionary calls for a manager’s head: that a month ago everything was going fine; that a manager shouldn’t be sacked after a minor bad run; that Aston Villa wouldn’t find anyone better. All are fair suggestions, but in the grand scheme of things at Villa, all can be disproven.

Paul Lambert certainly didn’t start the slide that Villa have been on over the last five years. Before him, Houllier and McLeish both struggled to keep Villa floating above the surface, but after a while those excuses wear thin. Eventually, you have to look at the recent history of the club under its current manager, and what he has achieved to change his team’s fortunes. Unfortunately, this is where Lambert falls short time and time again:

Worst start to a season in the club’s Premier League history (5 points out of 18 available – 2012/13)

Worst start to a season in the club’s last 43 years (6 points out of 27 available – 2012/13)

Heaviest defeat and highest losing margin (8-0 against Chelsea – 2012/13)

Most goals conceded in a Premier League season (69 – 2012/13)

Most consecutive games without a clean sheet (26 – 2012/13 into 2013/14)

Most defeats in a season (20 – 2013/14)

Most home defeats in a season (10 – 2013/14)

There are others that he has come close to breaking: joint-most home games without a goal (4); joint-most home games without a clean sheet (16); joint-lowest Premier League points total (38); and his poor start to the 2012/13 season contributed to Villa’s longest run without a win (13 games). Another (unconfirmed) stat suggests that no other top-flight side has been defeated over two legs against a team in the fourth tier – until Villa were knocked out of the League Cup by Bradford in the semi-finals two seasons ago.

So far in the 2014/15 season, Lambert has yet another statistic to add to his list of ‘achievements’ – most consecutive defeats without scoring (5) after Villa’s 2-0 defeat away at QPR. This was supposed to be the game to get Villa back on track, with Lambert suggesting that Villa have a wealth of goal-scoring talent in their squad. Now Villa find themselves 13-0 down and no points better off since their somewhat fortuitous win against Liverpool at Anfield last month.

Villa’s recent form guide makes for further grim reading. Compared to others in the league, Lambert’s side stand 20th for last-five results, 20th for goals, 20th for both shots total and shots on target, 19th for chance conversion and 19th for possession. Villa have only two registered goal scorers in Agbonlahor and Weimann: all other 91 Football League sides have at least three. Even Sunderland have a better goal difference than Villa, despite picking up two fewer points and losing 8-0 against Southampton last weekend.

These stats can be further contextualised by looking at Lambert’s record compared with his predecessors at Aston Villa. Most look at win ratios as an effective comparison: of the 27 permanent managers in Villa’s history, Lambert sits 22nd with 30.93% (30 wins from 97 games), a poor record ahead of only the infamous reigns of the likes of fellow-Scots Billy McNeil and Alex McLeish (yet less impressive than other calamitous periods such as under Dr Jozef Venglos or Graham Taylor’s second stint in charge at the club). What’s more interesting, however, is comparing losing ratios. Here Lambert places 26th of 27: of the 97 competitive games in charge of Aston Villa, 47 of them have ended in defeat, a ratio of 48.45%. Only one manager in the club’s history has lost a higher percentage of matches – Dick Taylor (71 defeats in 144 games between 1964 and 1967, a ratio of 49.31% – although his win ratio is better). At this rate, Paul Lambert will potentially go down as one of the club’s worst managers.

Further records could tumble with Villa facing Spurs this coming Sunday. Villa have never failed to score in six consecutive games, and if Spurs get their act together after their disappointing home defeat to Newcastle then this could be a real possibility. What’s clear though is that something needs to change at Villa. The club is arguably in greater danger of being relegated this season than in the last three. After a lucky start, they are sinking like a stone and are showing no signs of picking up.

A month ago, things were not fine at Villa. The results were there but the performances were poor. Villa picked up some lucky points, at times accompanied by resolute defending. The statistics demonstrate that Villa have been on a poor run since Lambert took over: nothing he has done has halted the demise of the prior two seasons, and it would be fair to suggest that things have gone from bad to worse. Managers such as Tony Pulis and David Moyes are available and known for building competitive sides if not for their style, but both would offer more than the Villa fans are currently being served up week-in-week-out. From this analysis, it is clear that the calls for Paul Lambert’s head are not reactionary: they are necessary.